Personal Investing Narratives

This Storyboard - which we call our "stain" chart - shows you at a glance how strong or weak a given narrative is right now relative to its history.

For each narrative or "semantic signature" listed on the left of the chart, we have a series of blue dots on the right, each of which represents a specific weekly density or volume of that narrative. reading from within the date range that we are covering. The red arrow is the most recent reading, so it's just like the "YOU ARE HERE" spot on a map. The x-axis scale shows the range of index values.  If a dot is at 100, that means that story is 100% more present in media than usual. If it’s at 0, it means it’s at its normal level.

The light blue shaded box covers the middle 50% of readings across the date range, so you can see quickly if the current reading is typical (inside the blue box), depressed (left of the blue box), or elevated (to the right of the blue box).

If you hover over a specific blue dot, you will see the specific date and measurement that the dot represents.

Retirement Withdrawal Debates Intensify in Early December

The 4% Rule Debate Rages On

The debate in financial media about the safe target withdrawal rate for retirees got spicier once again over the past few weeks. Perscient's semantic signature tracking language arguing in favor of the traditional 4% withdrawal rule rose by 6 points to sit more than 170% above its long-term average. At the same time, the signature monitoring criticism of that same rule climbed by 43 points over the past month to reach 111% above average. Both narratives now occupy elevated territory, which is not uncommon as we approach year-end financial planning, but well beyond what we have seen in recent years. It seems there’s a real debate being had in a world of potentially lower returns, the prospect of actual inflation, and interest rates that are not at or below zero.

Morningstar's 2025 analysis recommends a 3.9% starting withdrawal rate for typical retirees, down from 4% in 2024. The firm suggests that retirees can start with one withdrawal rate and adjust for inflation, though taxes, fees, and portfolio composition continue to matter. Recent studies indicate that lower withdrawal rates such as 3.7% may prove more appropriate under current conditions, driven by concerns about longevity, inflation, and diminished bond yields.

The mathematics of these adjustments can surprise retirees. If a portfolio grew from $1 million to $1.15 million in 2024, applying the new 3.7% rate would permit $42,550 in withdrawals—an increase of over 5% compared to what 2024's 4% rule would have allowed on the original balance. Lower percentages don't necessarily translate to reduced income when portfolio values rise.

Alternative frameworks have entered the discussion as well. Dave Ramsey's 8% rule assumes stock-heavy portfolios, though analysis suggests a 50/50 stock-bond split will generally not produce returns strong enough to safely sustain an 8% withdrawal rate. The presence of these competing strategies at such elevated signature levels indicates that households may be facing confusing guidance as they approach New Year’s resolutions about savings and investment decisions.

Some of the oxygen being sucked up by withdrawal rates and their embedded return expectations, however, is suppressing some other recent debate topics. Social Security's role in retirement planning, for example, has become less of a media focus over the past several weeks – and once again, on both sides of the debate. The signature tracking language that dismisses Social Security as unreliable fell 25 points to about 60% above its long-term average, while the signature monitoring arguments for including Social Security in planning declined 12 points to 95.33% above its average. The narrative only has room for so many recurring debates at year-end, and this just doesn’t look like social security’s year.

Traditional Tax Account Advice Getting Huge Play in Financial Media

Year end is also when individuals – and the outlets who design content for them – start thinking about taxes and contributions to retirement accounts. This December, the density of language favoring traditional accounts over Roth accounts for high earners has increased pretty significantly. Perscient's signature monitoring language arguing that traditional accounts beat Roth for high earners surged 35 points to reach a level three times its long-term average. Meanwhile, the signature tracking advocacy for Roth accounts for young people rose by 17 points to 35% above average. Neither of these bits of advice are all that unusual, of course, but the amount of ink being spent here even relative to prior years is noteworthy. Some changes to regulations for the treatment of high earners in particular seems the likeliest cause.

For married couples filing jointly in the top federal income tax bracket of 37% (at over $751,600 of income in 2025), pre-tax traditional contributions while working frequently make mathematical sense. Peak earners in the 32%-37% brackets often benefit from traditional IRA deductions, especially if they anticipate income drops in retirement. However, financial advisors note that high earners frequently underestimate retirement tax rates because multiple income streams—Social Security, required minimum distributions, pension income, and investment returns—converge simultaneously.

Regulatory changes are reshaping these decisions as well. Beginning in 2026, high-income retirement plan savers over 50 years old must execute their employee deferral catch-up contribution as a Roth. Employer match contributions may increasingly see Roth designation, potentially driving further discussion of traditional versus Roth trade-offs. For 2025, only savers with modified adjusted gross income at or below $150,000 ($236,000 for married couples filing jointly) can contribute the full amount to a Roth IRA, with the limit reduced for single filers between $150,000 and $165,000, according to Bankrate's analysis.

High earners locked out of direct Roth IRA contributions have increasingly turned to backdoor Roth strategies. JGP Wealth Management explains that individuals can make nondeductible traditional IRA contributions and then convert those funds to Roth accounts, though the strategy requires careful execution to avoid unintended tax consequences.

These account-type debates connect to broader patterns in tax-advantaged savings language. The signature monitoring language that investors should always max out tax-advantaged accounts first rose to 115% above its average, while the signature tracking skepticism about tax optimization fell by 59 points, suggesting that the year-end advice cycle AND regulatory changes coming in 2026 have financial media focused on giving households a triple dose of commentary about tax-advantaged saving strategies.

Volatility Puts a Damper on Excitement for New Sales Pitches

Language indicative of cryptocurrency advocacy for individual investors experienced a steep – if unsurprising - decline during the recent crypto sell-off. Perscient's signature tracking language that everyone should own some crypto fell by 65 points —the largest single-month decline among all signatures. At the same time, the signature monitoring skepticism about crypto's necessity rose by 17 points to nearly 80% above its long-term average.

The crypto market has maintained what Nasdaq describes as a neutral to cautiously optimistic outlook through December 2025. Volatility has persisted but overall stability has been supported by improving macro conditions and steady institutional investment growth, with Bitcoin hovering near $86,000-$90,000. Risk-off sentiment earlier sent Bitcoin falling from an all-time high near $126,000 in October to a late November trough below $86,000, though it had stabilized in the $92,500 to $93,000 range by early December. The New York Times reported that Bitcoin and other digital tokens lost more than $1 trillion in value in recent weeks, raising concerns about wider market fallout.

The wealth-building debate between stocks and real estate has also hit a bit of a snag after some near-term volatility. The signature tracking language that stocks represent a better path to wealth than real estate plummeted 73 points, while the signature monitoring language favoring real estate for wealth creation rose to nearly 50% above its long-term average. This narrowing gap may to some extent reflect changing household perceptions about optimal wealth-building strategies, but probably reflects a lot more volatility-driven pessimism about risky assets and annoyance on the part of younger writers that real estate seems increasingly out of reach.

The mathematical case for stocks remains strong in many analyses. A real-estate investor who paid $153,500 for a property in 1995 would have seen its value grow to $503,800 by year-end 2024, but if the same amount were invested in the S&P 500 in 1995, it would have grown to more than $3.4 million. Yet public sentiment tells a different story. About 37% of surveyed U.S. adults view real estate as the best investment for the long haul according to Gallup, with gold the second-most-popular choice at 23%, while just 16% put their faith in stocks or mutual funds—a decline of six percentage points from 2024.

Language suggesting that they put their faith in financial advisors, however, has remained fairly strong. Perscient’s semantic signature tracking language arguing that everyone needs a financial advisor rose to more than 50% above its long-term average, while the signature monitoring DIY investing advocacy still sits 13% below average. A survey of 2,000 American adults found that 34% manage all of their investments on their own, while 38% rely on their financial advisor to manage all of their investments, indicating households remain divided on this question.

As always, however, it bears keeping in mind that when it comes to the narratives put in front of retail investors about personal finance and investing, fear and greed tend to drive the stories that are told. The common theme this month – you probably need an advisor, you probably don’t need crypto or as much in risky stocks, and you probably ought to be a bit more conservative about your withdrawal rate – seems to suggest that financial media are predicting an environment of creeping fear about the economy and markets.

Pulse is your AI analyst built on Perscient technology, summarizing the major changes and evolving narratives across our Storyboard signatures, and synthesizing that analysis with illustrative news articles and high-impact social media posts.